Well, I'll be darned! How did Super Tuesday go down from where you sit?
I am pleased with the results from my alleged side of the aisle. It looks like it's going to be a race to the end, or at least a while longer, and I think that's best for everyone. We're going to get a couple more months to allow these guys to show their tru(er) colors, and the states with later primaries don't already have their choice made for them.
And Obama has a chance. Better than a chance. In fact, I think he may have the edge on Hillary at this point because of where the Republican race stands, which incidentally can be summed up as...
John McCain. Yes, it looks like our fears have been realized and Grandpa is the frontrunner. This is bad from my perspective for 3 reasons: firstly, John McCain is the frontrunner. Secondly, He's from Arizona so people are going to assume I had something to do with it (talked to any New Yorkers lately about who they planned to vote for? Hillary won there by a country mile - it never occurred to me personally to vote for someone because of the state from which they chose to pursue their political career, but whatever). And lastly, for reasons shrouded in mystery and inertia, I think John McCain holds the widest appeal of the Republican candidates and thus the best chance of winning the general election.
However, my flicker of hope resides in the fact that I think left-leaning voters realize this, and hopefully also realize how many people (on the left and the right) subscribe to the equally baffling Anyone But Hillary school of thought. I think Hillary might still win over McCain in a general election, but I think it would be close because I can't imagine a self-described conservative voter who didn't like McCain turning coat and voting for Mrs. Clinton, aka The She-Devil. I can imagine some of those same voters tossing their hat in with Obama - I can imagine it because I've heard several people say it in as many words. My very own father-in-law, lifelong Republican and conservative stronghold, has admitted to very seriously considering a vote for Obama over McCain if that's what it comes to.
And this post is getting long but it wouldn't be complete without a nod to Mike Huckabee. I think this is my favorite part of the whole story because I love to be wrong, and Huckabee's performance yesterday flies in the face of my theory that the frontrunners become such because the media *talks* them into position. I hadn't heard two words about The Huck in all the hype leading up to yesterday - it was a two-man race, and neither Chuck Norris nor Mike Huckabee was involved. Yes, we might have expected him to win Arkansas, and to make a showing in states with a large Baptist hick contingent, but he won almost as many delegates as Romney which was, I'm sure, quite a shock to both those gentlemen. Huck has said he's in this for the long haul so I guess we'll see how it plays out nationwide.
I'd love to hear everyone's thoughts on all this. Who do you think will win the Democratic nod? Who do you want to win? Why do you think Romney did worse than expected, and Huckabee better? Is it just a weird side effect of a three-way race? Or is the so-called Evangelical vote really that powerful (and unanimous)? When it comes right down to it, does Romney's religion hurt him? (Of course, no one would ever admit it, so it's hard to get a feel for this one). Do you think McCain is a sure thing at this point?
I hope this is reasonably coherent - I wanted to wait until this morning to compose my post so I could have the benefit of all the Primary results from yesterday, but the downside of doing it this way is that during the course of writing this I have:
1) fixed breakfast for three people, eaten myself, and clean up afterward
2) dusted off my pathetically rusty Spanish skills to ascertain whether my backyard is dry enough for the landscapers who are currently milling around back there to start their business today
3) dry-heaved my way through not one, but TWO very unfortunate diarrhea incidents courtesy of the same toddler. I guess I should just be grateful that only one of them resulted in a puddle on the carpet, right?
Super Tuesday, or, A Tale of Two Democrats, or, Three is a Crowd
Posted by The Wizzle on 2/06/2008
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Well put, wife. Hopefully the Dems in the later states realize that Obama has much, much better odds against McCain in the general election. The Republican smear machine will be in full force against Hillary.
(This is me in a corner crying...)
i'm posting for the first time after lurking for awhile. i am an arizona native, 34 year old, conservative, sahm living in tucson, a democratic stronghold. i did not vote for mccain because i believe he is politically dishonest. i am a romney supporter primarily because of his private business experience. i believe this country needs someone in office who has business experience in the real world. why would i want to vote for an establishment senator when the senate's ratings are a measly 22%? i refuse to vote for someone who has had a hand in creating our country's current problems. i am disturbed by the media's underhandedness in this election. calling states for a candidate when only 2% of the vote is counted is moronic. fox news assailing romney as the night's loser was biased. he still took more votes & delegates than huckabee. i know of several people who will not vote for mccain although they are republicans. they will sacrifice the party for obama if he gets the dem nomination. they will vote on character and mccain certainly lacks in this area. i, myself, am undecided. i still have hope for romney. regarding the mormon factor, last night on msnbc tom brokaw & chris matthews discussed this very thing. they said that if romney runs again he will have to decide how he's going to present his membership of the church. should he downplay it? when he attended pres hickley's funeral publicly it made the church front & center again. i believe the mormon factor definitely worked against romney in the south. i know people that would never vote for a mormon. religious prejudice is alive & well & manifesting itself in this election. anyway, sorry for the novel.
It'll be ok, Joel. Just let it all out. I'll join you and bring an extra box of Kleenex. :(
Sorry Joel and Amy! I really thought Romney would make a stronger showing - maybe my perception is skewed from knowing so many Mormons. ;)
Speaking from a conservative viewpoint, I think our country is going to hell.
I think McCain and Huckabee did some dirty politicking for working together to "share" their voters to shut out Romney. Don't know what I'm talking about? try googling West Virginia Caucus. Also, I am completely disenchanted with Ron Paul for joining McCain and Huckabee in their alliance and dirty methods. I thought he was pretty straight-talk, straight-walk but obviously I was mistaken.
As far as the religion thing goes, there are always people who aren't going to vote for someone because of their religion, race, or pointy ears. I've heard a few liberal black people say they aren't voting for Obama simply because they believe he'll be a target for assassination.
Personally, I think that if everyone voted their conscience instead of trying to play the political game of cat and mouse then yesterday would have turned out differently.
I project Hillary to win if it comes down to her and McCain.
This primary season has been a sad social commentary on the United States electorate. For the most part, we have women voting for Hillary, blacks voting for Obama, Mormons voting for Romney, evangelicals voting for Huckabee, and... the rest of the Republicans voting for McCain, I guess.
I really don't think it was an issue of people NOT voting for Romney because he's LDS as it was an issue of people VOTING for Huckabee because he's a Baptist preacher.
I don't see how McCain could beat Obama, especially since the Republicans don't appear to be voting based on politics this cycle (how else can you explain Mac's rise?). Obama's likability factor would put him over for sure. Hillary, it's a toss-up.
You're spot-on about the media, Pemberly (welcome, by the way, and I don't know your first name!). I was so annoyed by the mass media calling it "a big win for Hillary" and "a disaster for Romney" after the early states came in. How many California voters stayed home because they saw their guy had "already lost"? It's just totally obnoxious.
Oh, yeah, and Amy, that West Virginia thing was just as SLICK and DIRTY as can be. Just more evidence against McCain.
Well you're right about one thing for sure: The Hucker definitely got the hick vote. Not a huge surprise.
I personally hope Obama gets the Dem nomination. He's much less divisive than Clinton, and he would certainly get more crossover and independent votes that she would.
As far as Romney goes, I'm not too surprised. He doesn't have anything to offer the voters. Huck has the ultra-conservative and fundie (religious fundamentalist) blocks covered well. As for the more moderate voters: McCain and Romney are politically similar, but McCain has more experience and voters are more familiar with him, so it makes sense that people would pick him over Romney.
WHAT?! Romney and McCain are NOT politically similar. McCain and Hillary are politically similar. I do agree that McCain got a lot of votes simply because people recognize his name and face. Good for Romney for doing as well as he did when the majority of Americans had never heard of him before this election, despite his pulling Massachusetts from a $3 billion deficit into the black his first year to a $1 billion surplus by the time he left office, without raising taxes on the general populace.
Oh yeah, and I don't think it was just mormons voting for Romney. There are numerically more mormons in CA than UT, and a bunch of liberal mormons at that. I can count on one hand the # of mormons in my congregation that were going to vote for Romney. The rest were split between McCain, Obama, and Hillary. I think the only reason Romney won UT was because of his record there with the Olympics. He won the states that know him: MA, UT, MI. The rest just don't know him well enough.
I think voters nowadays, republican and democrat both, tend to vote for non-political reasons. They don't care about a person's platforms. They don't do research about the issues. They go with their impression from the media. Or gender, as all these women voted for Hillary. But she won the latino vote by a landslide as well.
One last venting point. I think a lot of people are very comfortable in their lives. They like how they live. They like hand-outs. They like not feeling responsible, ie blaming the government for all their problems. Well, government was started for the sake of the people by the people and letting in a candidate simply because you like the way they look or identify with their gender is just plain wrong. Eventually people will have to pay the consequences of not demanding that they be responsible without the back-patting and free handouts...because the handouts aren't really free. The government takes your money and redistributes it back. This simple concept is something a LOT of people, sadly, lack. Eventually the machine will break.
I have a lot that I want to say, but I am going to post my own post tomorrow, so as not to try to steer the conversation here - I wish Obama would have done better in California. And I wish that Mike Huckabee would put on overalls and start chewing on a stalk of wheat. seriously, that little guy bugs me...gets deep under my skin. And I'm not even republican. Anyways, other than that, I'd say, no real surprise, but nothing that is worth writing home about - just another big overblown fakey-fake American political "show". Entertaining, I guess, if not a bit revolting. - - for most of the reason vented above.
And I agree with Jackson - the two are similar politically, in that they would appeal to the same demographic.
This is Tricia...not Chase.
I'm glad Romney has been such a class act and I hope he'll be back...and people will get some sense knocked into them...how anyone could have listened to the last republican debate and seen John McCain lie right to Romney's face and then still support McCain is beyond me, however, I will still vote for McCain simply because of he's pro-life.
Whether its politically correct or not... I don't know why people aren't concerned that Obama says he's Christian and then insists on being sworn in to the Senate by putting his hand on the Koran...hmmm that's concerning.
I never thought I'd ever say I wanted Hilary to win the democratic nominee, until Obama came into the picture-and MANY conservatives feel that way. Obama is too extreme. Another Jimmy Carter situation waiting to happen, but that's okay, Mitt Romney can be the Ronald Reagan!
However, I do honor the Office of President and whoever is elected-even if it is Obama-I will hope he does a great job for the sake of our country. I will not bash the President no matter who it is.
Hi Tricia! I think you're right about McCain; he is so classless. The big fat Iraq timetable lie right before the Florida primary, telling his people to vote for Huckabee in West Virginia... pure political slimyness.
The rumor going around that Obama was sworn in on the Koran is false (1 2 3). There is a Muslim Congressman, Keith Ellison, who was sworn in on the Koran, but Obama is, indeed, a Christian!
While I agree that inane nitpicking and disrespect for the President doesn't do anyone any good, I also don't agree that by virtue of managing to get elected, whatever he or she does is above reproach. It is our duty, under this system, to hold our leaders accountable. I don't consider disagreeing with someone, and voicing that opinion, to be "bashing".
And can that Koran story PLEASE die already?
I agree...disagreeing is not bashing, however, there have definitely been people in our nation that go beyond the point of disagreeing-that's all I'm saying.
I removed my post because I didn't see Mike's excellent post about the Obama myth above.
Still, I would prefer for people to check their facts before posting.
Jackson, I realize I probably don't rate high on your list of favorite people, but please take it with a grain of salt when I say that the whole purpose of this blog is to provide fodder for discussion. If someone posts something that another person can disprove or disagrees with, then they can nicely tell that person why they disagree. That is the whole point of having a blogging discussion. That being said, 'I would prefer' if you tried a little harder to be polite when you come across someone whom you deem more ignorant or nonfactual than yourself.
Good points Amy, I'll definitely be more careful in the future.
Please do consider, though, that it is very easy to do a quick fact check on the internet before posting false information. In fact, it took me less than thirty seconds on Google to find multiple reliable sources that repudiated that particular rumor about Senator Obama.
I think it's important to political discussion for people to consider the real facts about policies and candidates. Posting false information hurts that discussion, in my opinion.
I will be more gentle in the future, but I would still appreciate it if people would double-check their facts when it is easy to do so.
P.S. -- I don't have anything against you, Amy. Sorry if I came off that way. I enjoy debating things with you.
Now that Romney is out, see what other supporters are saying about the 2008 presidential race.
http://3DW.net/letter
Hey Mike and all you contributors--congratu-freakin-lations on the Wall Street Journal. That's fantastic. I hope you're all very proud. 15 minutes sure didn't take you long, Mike. Well done.
By the way, I absolutely think Romney's religion played a role in his demise. Haven't we all seen the polls confirming as much--voters scared by a Mormon president? Honestly, I am shocked and disappointed in us as a society that this is even an issue. I just hope this brings us one step closer to looking beyond mere religion (like gender or race) when electing our officials. But Romney certainly has opened the door for future Mormon President hopefuls, and we have him to thank for that. Kevin, are you listening?
I was blog hopping and came across ricks blog and saw the link to this site. I was so excited because I have really gotten into politics for some strange reason.......maybe because our nation is headed toward SOCIALISM!!!!AWWWWW!!
I was a romney supporter because he is new, has great economic background (we are headed toward a recession)and I know what he stands for.
After Romneys "suspension" I'm now having to decide if I want to shoot myself in the head and vote for "JUAN McCAIN-MEXAMERICANADA 0'8" or shoot myself in the head and vote for...I never thought in a million years I would say this Hillarycare!
Either way it's a lose lose situation. I'm thinking of voting for Hillary because the only way the republican party will ever return to what the republican party stood for is if they hit "rock bottom". We need to clean out Washington and the only way that will happen is if the democrats screw things up so bad that republicans finally realize they HAVE to pull their heads out of the democratic "ASS" and return to the values we once stood for.
The race will come down to Hillary and Juan. There are still to many racists in this country and besides obama is more liberal than Hillarycare.The only way obama has a chance is if african americans get off their butts and vote) I'm not racist, I'm just telling the truth. Yes, obama is young, fresh and inspiring but he has no plan of action. Any motivational speaker would do just as well as obama.
Well, African Americans (and young people, Democrats as a whole and traditionally underrepresented groups) are voting in record numbers this election.
However, Latinos seem to be voting strongly for Clinton and they are a very large group if they decide to get organized.
It is true African Americans and young people are showing up in record numbers, but "record numbers" is anything above the past turn out rate, which was VERY low.So unless there is a drastic increase "record numbers" means nothing.
I don't want to, but I'll vote for Hillary or Obama over Juan McCain.
on a side note,I 've seen the pic of obama without a hand over his heart during the Nation Anthem or plegde, I can't remember which. Please tell me it's not true, and if it is please give a logical explination.
Matt, the rumor you are referring to is that Sen. Obama will not recite the Pledge of Allegiance. It is false. Please see link # 1 in Mike's post above. (It starts: "Hi Tricia!...")
I heard that Obama eats babies, someone confirm this. Mike, love the BLOG, keep it up.
Oh Crap, Jake, that just killed me - I was laughing for a couple of minutes. Anyways, it's not true. That rumor got started because he was KISSING babies - - things just got blown out of perportion! Like that rumor about Obama's connection with Neo-Satanism and those pics that have been floating around the web of him at a nudist resort - photoshop, man. - simply not true :)
I.. EAT.. BABBIES!!! GET..IN.. MY.. BELLAE!!!!!
I was laughing too. Quickly though, to the Jackson/Amy comments, I could check facts all year long and come up with something that was completely false, and that is what I keep hitting, and I am sorry to those who are tired of hearing me say it. But checking facts doesn't work. Your "reliable" sources would not be considered so by me, and my "reliable," sources would not be considered so by you. I thought it was ironic to hear you say those things and remember your previous blog on huckabee being ultra-conservative. I don't know where you got that from, but he is not, and as Amy points out, McCain and Romney ain't similar.
Sorry, that is just my soapbox so I had to chime in about the informational source chrisis we have on our hands in this day and age.
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