Gas is higher than $4.00 a gallon in many parts of the US, and by the looks of it, it'll keep rising over the next year. Predictions seem to indicate that we might see a $5.00 per gallon price within the next 3 months, $6-7.00 per gallon by next year, and some even say we could see $12-15 in the not too distant future. Sure, this may be a "boy who cried wolf" or "the sky is falling" scenerio - it may be a political scandal to push an agenda (like many of you seem to think Global Warming is) but it COULD be a real problem. In fact, I'm going to go out on a limb and say it is a real threat and a real problem, we (by we I mean us as citizens and our govenrment) don't act quickly, it could lead to disaster.
My frustration is that the Gas has been steadily rising since 9/11. No, It's been steadily rising since....like the 60's, or something, but we have ignored it - just kind of grinned and bared it - but, will we be able to really bear it when one tank of gass for a small two-door sedan costs $165?
In Many parts of Europe, including the UK, I'm hearing, Gas already costs nearly $12 per gallon (That is Dollars, not Euros). So, this is not far fetched fiction. As I said earlier, our government needs to do something, as do we as citizens.
We could talk all day about what we feel the government should do. That doesn't make them actually doing something any more likely. In my opinion, we need strong leaders who pass legislation to support the development and cost-effectiveness of alternate energy sources. There are a myrid of options - Hydrogen, Electric, Solar, etc - but the problem is that they haven't become a commercially viable option because they all seem cost prohibitive. Fully electric cars are still astronomically priced, and Hybrids are not cheap. That's where the govenrment could help, be it with tax breaks, research assistance, increase in publich transoprtation, whatever - there needs to be a pro-active stance taken. Whatever the government does, I do not think that ripping up our natural reasources in the USA is the answer. I've heard the phrase "screw the caribou" thrown around these last few days as a slogan to promote drilling in Alaska. Honestly, part of my reasoning is because I quite like pristine nature, and I don't think it's our responsibility to mess up every beautiful tract of land on this planet. But, in addition to that, It is such a temporary fix - Gas is a limited commodity. It won't last forever. Our mindset should not be "stop the US dependance on foreign oil" but, rather, "stop the US dependance on ANY oil."
But more important and more immediate than asking, "what should the government do?" is for the individual to adjust his or her life to be prepared for whatever comes. I don't know about you, but in my ward, these last few months, Emergency Preparedness has really been stressed. I have a feeling it's a church wide thing - And I don't think it takes a prophet to know that we are headed for hard times. So, what do we do about curbing the heroine-like addictions that we as a nation and individuals have to gasoline? I mean, throw all the environmental reasons (of which I am so fond) aside - the cost alone will break all but the most wealthy of us.
One option (that is more a quick bide-your-time fix than anything) is Propane - according to my friend who works on engins for a living, Propane burns just very slightly less efficently than Petrolium - which means you would get just a very small amount less travel per gallon - and it burns clean, with virtually no byproduct. Currently, Propane is about $2.50 per gallon.
Hybrids and Smart Cars - these are great ways to increase your miles to the gallon, but they are still both dependant on Gasoline. Smart Cars are really cool looking, though.
Bio-fuel - This is NOT a viable option - it's a failed experiment - lets not keep fooling ourselves - the reason Wheat is so high right now is because farmers stopped growing wheat to grow corn to turn into fuel. Not only that, but the Slash/Burn policy in the Brazilian Amazon has become an even bigger problem because those farmers have decided Corn is more important than the Rain Forest.
Electric and Hydrogen - For some reason (I'm a conspiricy theorist, so don't ask me why - chances are you won't like my answer) These just havn't made it yet. Here's hoping.
Public Transportation - Look, guys - it really isn't that bad. I've relied on public transportation in Utah, Arizona, Southern California, Northern California, Phildelphia, you name it. It's an adventure, it's entertaining, but - It's not the horror that you imagine. The more we use it, the more money will be put into the system, and the better it will be.
Bikes - you laugh, but seriously - there is no better way to get around. I haven't missed my car one bit in this last year. Except when it rains. But that's why god gave us rain coats and umbrellas.
Walking - We all have a different background, but, here in Mesa, where I've relocated -and everywhere Else I've ever lived in the US, There are large shopping centers not too far from most major housing developments. God gave us legs.
Internet Shopping - Okay, a LOT of gas is wasted on eating out and shopping for useless stuff - what is the point!? Just stay home or buy it ("it" being the useless stuff you want to buy) on Amazon or Ebay - it'll probably be cheaper. Go for a walk in the park, instead.
Planning - Jillions of Dollars of gas could be saved every year if we just planned our outings in the car even a little.
I know it's kind of crazy, but something in me hopes the Gas prices DO continue to rise to the astronomical levels I opened this post with - just so that people would have to start living more responsibly, and so that the govenrment's hand will be forced and they will have to work to develope alternate forms. But if it gets to that point, we, as a nation, are in trouble.
Gas Out the Roof - what do we do?
Posted by Anonymous on 5/23/2008
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My first comment didn't work, so this one won't be as eloquent. Rick, I had a lot of these exact same thoughts today while I was out grocery shopping. Looking at the rise in food prices (not all, but some), and in gas prices, and in stamps, etc. (basically everything that is related to gas and oil), I realized that it is time to re-evaluate the way I do a lot of things.
We haven't felt too much of a pinch in our gas budget yet because my husband does ride the train to work, and I don't drive much except to pick kids up from school and run errands. I have been trying to cluster my errands and stock up when I am at the store to minimize the number of trips I have to take. We are staying in-state for our summer vacation.
Honestly, I kind of look forward to people cutting back a bit. We as a society have become so materialistic. My husband and I already live frugally, so we don't have a lot of things we have to worry about losing. On the other hand, when you don't live on much, you don't have much to cut out either, so I worry if we do have to start making choices about needs.
I fully agree, Rick, that we need to decrease or eliminate our need for oil with alternative energy sources. But, in the short term, sky-high oil prices will grind our economy to a halt. Thus far, certain industries have absorbed the increase (trucking, for example), but truckers aren't going to want to live on nothing for long. So, I do support more drilling for oil here at home. We don't need to kill the caribou - we can be careful and responsible.
It kills me to see the oil companies with record profits when other industries are losing money so badly (particularly the airlines). I don't have ideas for solutions. I hate the ideas put forth by the Democrats and haven't really heard much from the Republican side. Bringing in the heads of the oil companies to yell at for "show" doesn't seem to help much.
I do think there is some manipulation of the price using the futures market going on here. Not sure who exactly to blame, but some of the people benefiting from the high prices are oil companies, oil nations, even Bush's croonies. Speculation has been part of the problem causing the housing crisis. It may be a factor in high cheese prices. I think I am a bit of a conspiracy theorist.
I am all for free market, but like Dave said on another post, we need regulation. I just don't have enough faith in people's integrity for a true free market.
And now I'm just rambling. Good post, Rick. Gives me a lot to think about.
I think part of the problem is that our society doesn't function the same way it did 100 years ago when the car got invented and used gasoline for fuel. For example, people used to stay put in the same 5-10 mile radius their entire lives. Some people traveled, but most didn't. Everything you needed you grew yourself, farmed yourself, bought yourself, in the same little community that your parents grew up in. Things were closer.
Something that I think is a viable option for cutting back is telecommuting. Seriously. The internet is so great nowadays, and it is more common to have access than not. Why not work from home over the internet? Why not conference call and use Chat and Video Conferencing to get the job done? Why can't teachers record their lectures, post them on Blackboard or whatever, and then students can email in their papers? I would have loved that in high school and when I worked on my baccalaureate.
oh yeah, I live in No Cal, and I think the public transportation here stinks. There are 5 different systems, only 2 or 3 connect and the time it takes to get to a connection is NOT worth the time or money. If the government is going to build public transportation they need to actually plan for estimated growth, etc. Stupid planning, or quick-fix additional transportational means is a waste of energy.
Sorry for all the comments Rick. I guess you can tell you did a great job since I feel the need to leave 3 comments!
I just want to add that not too long ago gas here was $3.77. Not too long ago as in 2-3 months ago. Today it is $4.17. Not sure what it will be tomorrow.
I agree that we need the government to step up and invest in making alternative energy sources a practical reality. But back to gas prices...
Gas prices are not high because there is too little supply or too much demand, and wheat is not expensive because corn is being grown instead of wheat. Both are convenient but incorrect assumptions. We all have market speculators to blame for outrageous commodity prices, and just like the housing boom of a couple years ago (fueled by real estate speculators), the commodity bubble will burst and prices will come back down. In the meantime, however, it will be quite painful for a lot of people.
I will also take this opportunity to blast John McCain and particularly Hillary Clinton for proposing a federal gas tax holiday this summer. Congressional budget experts and watchdog groups agree that the holiday would amount to an average savings of ~$28 per family (less than half a tank of gas for most cars), while destroying the solvency of several federal infrastructure programs. I am very pleased that Barack Obama didn't participate in the populist BS game that Clinton and McCain continue to play.
Speculators tend to go from industry to industry to make money. Is there anything inherently wrong with speculating? No - risky investing to make a profit is a fair business practice (and helps a free market economy and entrepreneurs). The problem is dishonest manipulation of the market.
I will second Dave's blast on the gas tax holiday. Isn't this the essence of "token politics"? Pat, pat on the head. Here's a bone. Vote for me.
Here's an article that explains the price of gas. A couple of paragraphs in particular:
[Oil] Prices are a function of the open market, the result of futures contracts being traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange, or Nymex, and other exchanges around the world.
Buying the current July crude oil futures contract means you're buying oil that will be delivered by the end of July. But most investors who trade futures have no intention of ever accepting the underlying oil: Like stock investors who frequently buy and sell their holdings, they're simply betting that prices will rise or fall.
Of late, on the Nymex, oil futures have been rising.
Why? Blame the falling dollar. Oil is priced in U.S. dollars, and the weaker the dollar gets, the more attractive dollar-denominated oil contracts are to foreign investors — or any investor looking for a safe haven in the turbulent stock market.
The rush of buyers keeps pushing oil futures to a series of new records, and the rest of the energy complex, including gasoline futures, has followed. That pushes up the price of gas that goes into your tank.
"Crude is the driver," said Jim Ritterbusch, president of energy consultancy Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena, Ill. "As long as it stays up there, gasoline's not going to be able to decline much at all, even if demand slips. That's just the way it is."
Note that investors have gone from the housing market to stock market to commodities market (as Dave said).
I guess (not sure, I am still trying to form my opinion) that some type of regulation would be in order. I honestly don't think I would have said that a year ago. Any ideas on what type of regulation woult be the most effective while providing the least amount of interference? I am not talking about nationalization of the oil companies (as a Democrat threatened in those oil hearings). I'm talking about regulations in the futures market, where speculators jump in to make a profit.
Fantastic post Rick! I was thinking along the same lines today that maybe it's not so bad if prices keep going up. Just like any bad habit, people in general don't change that habit until something forces them to (ie. lung cancer & smoking). I just hope it doesn't affect my business too much as the housing slump already has. Hopefully prices will drop by the end of the year.
The suggestions for alternative ideas are things we all need to work on (except for Rick:). Wating for a bus in 110 degree weather isn't going to help.
Just think, I might actually meet my neighbors if we took the bus together, walked or used bikes to get to the store. We have a guy in our ward that is all about planting gardens. He often comments in church on what needs to be planted each season but I doubt if anyone uses his advice. It's hard work, but there ain't nothin' wrong with that.
I think the government is definately involved with oil companies and car manufacturers as they bring in huge amounts of tax revenue. (yes, there are record profits, but remember, there are also record taxes for oil compaines) I don't agree with any oil tax increase as the oil companies will just pass it on to us. The answer is what Rick said, use alternative forms of transprotation. It's difficult though, especially in the Phoenix area where everything is so spread out. My employee often spends 2 hours to travel one way 10 miles. Not very convenient.
There are many ideas for alternative fuels, cars etc. but many ideas are silenced with money as the oil and car companies are threatened with loss of money as well as the government which I feel is the biggest silencer.
I enjoyed the post very much. I believe that prices will not come back down when the supposed commodities bubble bursts. We have reached Peak Oil meaning that from now until we switch away from oil it will continue to get more expensive. What new significant oil fields have been discovered in the last two years? For us to drill in Alaska, there’s only enough proven oil there to last us less than a year. People who advocate such measures are not visionary and have no long-term planning in mind. Fortunately, with the increase in prices, that will help accelerate the switchover to other energy sources. Of the options you listed, none are long-term options except for hydrogen fuel cells. In ten years everyone will have one.
The problem is most of the church lives in the suburbs and therefore can do very little without their car. The whole arrangement of the suburbs is designed around the car. Since this is largely a suburban church, the members are going to be in a world of hurt and there isn’t much that can be done individually to prepare for no gasoline except have a year supply of food. It will be hard convincing church members who DRIVE two blocks to church to use public transportation to get to work.
Unfortunately higher prices also mean it will now be feasible for the US to explore where it was previously prohibitively expensive to try and find new oil. Regulations should be put into place prohibiting such wastes of time, effort, and money, thereby channeling those resources into other forms of energy development.
There is an enlightening article in the Wall Street Journal laying some of the blame for the high price of gas on inflation. The link is: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121150088368615927.html?mod=djemEditorialPage
(You have to have a subscription to view it.)
There are many ideas for alternative fuels, cars etc. but many ideas are silenced with money as the oil and car companies are threatened with loss of money as well as the government which I feel is the biggest silencer.
Perhaps this is one of the biggest stories of all in the whole mess.
For us to drill in Alaska, there’s only enough proven oil there to last us less than a year
Well, that's better than nothing and might be the difference between utter collapse and eeking along. Our economy has been oil-based for nearly a century, and although we're a few decades behind, we're not going to change overnight. Hopefully these prices are a wake-up call.
debs, for those of us who don't have a subscription, would you mind giving a few key points? Thank you.
It has been really interesting, to use a very broad word, to watch the way people have reacted to this most recent gas price rise. I don't know what is going to happen - I'm not an economist - but I think it certainly seems very possible that gas prices do not come down again, and keep getting higher at whatever rate. I think, in the long run, it will be a good thing because it will force us (collectively) to find a better solution. As long as the gas system is in place and it's not "hurting" to continue on that path (meaning people aren't personally and immediately feeling the pinch of it) then there's just no real, universal incentive to change.
I personally have really been seeing the value of staying close to my home, instead of driving all over the Valley looking for just the right cut of meat or the best park or whatever. It just ain't worth it at this point.
All I know is I really wish "they" would get on the horn and decide what is the alternative fuel of the future because we are fixing to buy a minivan and I just know as soon as we do then they're going to announce the Next Big Thing and I'm gonna be so mad...
And Rick - you're in Mesa? Give me a call, dude!
Wizzle - I know what you mean. Our minivan is in its last little stretch, and we'll need to replace it soon. Problem is - we need to get something bigger. We are holding out for better technology. I'm not sinking money into old technology, so if our van goes soon, we are going to buy an older SUV (Suburban - we want one that seats nine. What do you do when you have four kids, are planning more, and drive a carpool?)Fortunately, large SUVs are dropping in price because people don't want them anymore. I'll still pay through the nose for gas in the short-term, but I hope it will save money in the long-term when I can afford to ditch it and buy the new technology (how is that for faith?)
Incidentally, our minivan does use ethanol. We can switch back and forth. But, ethanol is always 30 cents cheaper than gas around here, and only 2/3 as efficient. It costs an arm and a leg more than gas to drive, so it just isn't worth it. And now that I know it is contributing to rising food prices and starving people, I don't feel so bad about not using it anymore.
i'm a lurker to this site but wanted to comment on this issue. i don't see how anyone would desire gas prices to continue rising just to "teach" people a lesson about environmental issues. the rise in gas prices will act as a catalyst in the further decline in our economy. why would any of us want our fellow countrymen to suffer? as gas prices rise, so do food prices & in turn other necessary services will too. did you know that currently the church cannerys are running low on several of their basic products? there is rationing on basic items such as wheat & rice. where i live we cannot make orders of white wheat because the market values make it to expensive for the church to purchase. the majority of people that are really effected by the rising gas prices are not the gas-guzzling suv drivers but lower income people that are already struggling to make ends meet. i guess my point is things are bad, why wish for them to be worse. just my $.02.
I didn't say it was a good thing in every sense, but I do think it could be a catalyst for some good things to happen - such as finding a realistic alternative fuel solution that actually works for regular humans, with families, etc.
As it is now, it really sucks because the people with the fewest options are the ones hardest hit by the whole situation. So it always is.
I've decided that it isn't just "we as a nation" who will be in trouble. This is a global economy, and if the US of A continues to decline then other economies will be negatively impacted, and things will escalate until the world is just a huge global depression. Not good.
Well, it appears we will be making this decision sooner than later. I smashed up the front of my van yesterday (me and all four kids are okay). It will probably be considered a loss, so we are looking into new cars. Do I take the screaming deal I can get on a Suburban that seats everyone with room to grow and room for all our luggage on vacations but pay more for gas? Or do I cough up the extra several thousand for an Odyssey or Sienna that seats eight (and only the Sienna comes close to having just the cargo room that I currently have, which is proving to not be enough on trips)? I decided that it's Sienna or Suburban. The gas difference on a typical year of driving 12,000 miles is a little over $600 (at $4/gallon gas). Tough decisions.
Oh, and we've been walking or biking to homes that are close enough, when it is late enough that we won't die of heat exhaustion. I've been trying to limit my driving overall.
I would figure out the cost on more than $4/gallon if you're planning on having the vehicle for the next ten years. Our gas prices are not going to go down, regardless of what happens in the Middle East. We are paying over $5/gallon here in California now.
I did - at $8/gallon, it is $1200 more/year in gas. We plan to get one to drive for 5 years. My husband doesn't think technology will catch up by then, but I have faith in entrepreneurs.
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