veep stakes

While the polls seem to indicate Obama with a decent lead in the polls, I've talked to a number of people who are on the fence, waiting to see who the nominees choose as their running mates - who knows, it could make or break a candidacy this year. So today, let me share Rogan's Rankings of the top twenty VP possibilities - starting with the Republicans.

John McCain

Haley Barbour, governor of Mississippi
He's got the real conservative credentials that McCain lacks, so he might energize the base, but he wouldn't particularly appeal to independents and undecided. Plus, Mississippi's already going for the Republican. However, he served as RNC chair from '93-'97, when the Republicans captured the House and the Senate, and gained national attention for his masterly handling of Hurricane Katrina. C+

Charlie Crist, governor of Florida
Crist delivered the Florida primary for McCain, so many think that Mac "owes him one". Of course, the one could be an attorney generalship or something. Florida is such a key state, and Crist's popularity there could be a big help. I hate to see someone so obviously pandering for the job, though. B

Rudy Giuliani, former mayor of New York City
Nationally well-known, and moderate enough on social issues to attract a number of swing voters. His biggest weakness in the primaries was the management of his campaign, which would no longer be a problem. The biggest problem is that his greatest strength, national security, matches McCain, but you could make the argument that national security is McCain's only ticket to the White House. B+

Mike Huckabee, former governor of Arkansas
BLECH. Brings zero swing voters, brings only states that are in the bag for Mac, only popular with the evangelical portion of the conservative base, and just leaves a foul taste in the mouth. F

Bobby Jindal, governor of Louisiana
At age 36, brings much-needed youth to the ticket. He's also the first Indian-American governor in U.S. history. Like Barbour, Jindal has serious conservative credentials. He may not want to hitch his wagon to the McCain train, though, since he's got the potential to be the Barack Obama of the 2012 or 2016 Republican party. But if McCain could get him... A-

Joe Lieberman, senator from Connecticut
Well, "Joe-mentum" already has experience running for VPOTUS - failed experience. He's a Democrat, sort of, and he's Jewish, and he's got the whole "maverick" thing kinda working for him. On the other hand, like Giuliani, he's really only strong on foreign policy. Unlike Rudy, he's not particularly popular. B-

Sarah Palin, governor of Alaska
Quite a few disgruntled Hillary supporters have the potential to go over to McCain, and Palin could seriously help in that regard. Immensely popular in her home state, she's young, a strong conservative who has truly lived her pro-life credentials (she has a child with Down's syndrome). Her one problem that I see is her relative inexperience (she's only been governor since 2006) but who's going to call her on that? Barack Obama? Pssh. A

Colin Powell, former Secretary of State
Would have been the best choice in 2000, but he's a little aged now, plus he's got Bush tarnish on him, and again, he's all national security. On the other hand, he's always been intensely popular, and he's a strong moderate who appeals to the swing vote. B

Condoleezza Rice, Secretary of State
Quite popular with conservatives, got the minority/female thing all covered, but she has even more Bush tarnish on her than Powell does. McCain has got to run, run, run away from all things W. She's strong on national security but I don't really know much about her other policies. Plus she's always indicated her disinterest in running for elected office. B-

Mitt Romney, former governor of Massachusetts
"It's the economy, stupid." Whether or not you agree with his policies, Romney brings the strongest economic credentials to the table, which, as things get worse, could actually give him some swing voter appeal - he's definitely lacking in that area. I didn't think his Mormonism particulary hurt him in the primaries, and wouldn't be a general election factor. Sure seemed like he and McCain hated each other in the primaries, though, and if McCain can't get it done in '08, Romney is in prime position for '12, when regardless of presidential policies, the economy may well still be struggling. By then his flip-flopper reputation may have waned a bit if he sticks to his new conservative guns. B+

Honorable mention: Tim Pawlenty, Jim DeMint, Tom Coburn

I'll do Obama's tonight or tomorrow.

14 comments:

Anonymous said...

I agree that Palin would be a great pick. (Politically speaking, of course.) Not a lot of excitement surrounding the McCain campaign right now, and she would change that. His campaign would suddenly be "historic" like Obama's. I'm not so sure about your other A-level choice, Jindal. First, some independent McCain supporters might not like the weirdness factor created by Jindal's participation in what he described as an exorcism. Second, though it's sad to say, some ordinarily Democratic voters might be defecting to McCain because they just can't get over Obama's "foreignness." If McCain runs with Jindal, some of those voters might return to Obama or just stay home.

Giuliani is risky. I think there's a certain level of sexual shenanigans you can get away with in New York but not nationally, especially not in the GOP. When it comes to sexual purity, Obama is exactly what a Republican candidate is supposed to be; McCain and especially Giuliani are hound dogs in comparison. Giuliani would just be one more reason for Christian right voters to jump ship or stay home.

If McCain asked me, I'd say go with Palin. But I don't think that's who he'll choose. If someone held a gun to my head and said "Prophesy or die!" I'd say Crist.

Nice round-up, Mike--but what's the bottom line? Who do you think would be the best pick, and who will be McCain's pick?

--David

Stephanie said...

Great analysis. You may not be a conservative, but you know how we think. :) My top 3 are Romney, Jindal and Palin - in that order. I love what Jindal is doing in LA, particularly with child predators. But, like you said, both Jindal and Palin are new to the scene - up and coming stars. My bottom 3 on your list are Huckabee, Giuliani and Lieberman (in that order). I like both Powell and Rice, but I agree that they have Bush tarnish. I think McCain needs to wipe the slate clean a little more than that.

Barbour or Crist would be fine. I don't think they would add or take away.

I told the RNC no AGAIN when they called today to ask for money. It would take one of those top 3 to get me to open my pocketbook and have some hope again (particularly Romney - I'd send money for Romney in a heartbeat).

I think that McCain is enough of a moderate that putting another moderate on the ticket wouldn't help. It probably would hurt because he needs to appeal to the conservative base. I think his best bet would be to go with a strong conservative.

Anonymous said...

Palin inexperienced???!!!???

Boy does that miss the mark. She's got more actual accomplishment, qualifications and experience than Obama times 10!

If the Dems, or anyone, want to make an issue of Palin's (lack of) experience, I say bring it on!!!

Anyway, its clearly gonna be McCain/Palin and it does seem that that ticket is unbeatable.

Unknown said...

Obviously I think McCain should choose Palin, but I don't know if he will. I don't know how to predict anything McCain would ever do, honestly. I would guess Crist or Giuliani, with Giuliani being a slightly better option. He's still got some serious national name recognition and respect, now that some time has elapsed since his disastrous presidential campaign!

Another pro-Palin point is that she is with him on climate change, where most Republicans aren't. It could happen!

I never heard about Jindal's exorcism-thingee, but you may have a point, Dave. I'm sure McCain wants to keep the religious issues (Wright) away from himself.

Ted, I said relatively inexperienced, and that she is - just compare her to the other nine I've listed. Fortunately, I might add, any ticket with McCain on top is quite beatable. :)

Anonymous said...

I like your closing remark, Mike - any ticket with Mccain at the head is, indeed, beatable.

Amy said...

Obviously I'm rooting for Mitt because HE IS AWESOME, but getting a woman on the ticket with McCain would be, simply put, politically smart.

Stephanie said...

Romney's ability to raise money is another big point in his favor.

Anonymous said...

question. If you like Napoletano so much, and can't find any cons for her, why did you give her an A-, rank her under two other candidates, and why don't you seem to think she's a serious contender? Also, Mike, i disagree with you on the Clinton thing - but I know that's what alot of people have been saying. when will we see, anyways?

Unknown said...

I dunno, Rick, I probably just overcompensated for my own pro-Napolitano bias... forgive me!

Unknown said...

Also, regarding Clinton, let me say that I don't agree with all the Hillary hate, it's just my observation with the people I know who are moderate, swing voter-types. And yes, I am ready to know now. I am ready for some more debates. Let's get this show on the road, the campaigns are getting stale!

Anonymous said...

Jindal whould have to be a great pick, as for the others there are so many pluses but yet so many minuses, but really we have to look at Obama and McCain, and it is for Obama to lose becasue McCain is really not doing anything to win.

The Wizzle said...

This is a great jumping-off place for me - I am shamefully underinformed on the status of the VP pickings at this point. A lot of people in my "situation" like Palin because she had a baby while in office. Can you imagine??? She must be much, much more organized than I am. Or have a lots of nannies. Or something.

Amy said...

Mike, did you intentionally disable comments for your Veep Stakes part 2 post?

big.bald.dave said...

Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com posted an in-depth look at the effect of a McCain/Romney ticket on the electoral map - interesting stuff:

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