(some) things are getting interesting

After Edwards' terrible showing in Nevada today (4%), the Democratic primary battle appears to be a two-contender race (sorry, Kucinich). Obama v. Clinton should wrap itself up nicely by Super Tuesday. Yawwwwn. The real excitement is in the wide-open Republican race.

Today Mitt Romney won Nevada and John McCain won South Carolina. There are really four viable candidates remaining to the Republicans, if you include Mike Huckabee, who has a win in Iowa and a strong second-place showing today in SC, and Rudy Giuliani, who has pinned all his hopes on a win in Florida. Florida is winner-take-all, and a Rudy win would put him right back in contention, even though he's been totally invisible up to this point. Notice I don't list Fred Thompson, who needed to win in South Carolina (he placed 3rd), or Ron Paul.

Let's look at Romney's Nevada win. Mitt won the state with 50% of the vote, followed by Paul and McCain with 14 and 13 percent, respectively. Entrance polling at CNN show that a quarter of today's voters were LDS, and 95% of them voted for Romney; incredible! This partially explains why he only came in fourth in South Carolina. I think the Mormon bump is going to be a major factor for Mitt on Super Tuesday, and I expect him to handily win Utah, Arizona, and compete strongly in California.

Romney is the candidate who best exemplifies the conservative core values (at least he does today), but he's got this little problem: Fred Thompson. McCain took South Carolina with 33% today, Mitt had 15%... and Thompson had 16%. Thompson has the strongest conservative credentials, and his voters, I would guess, will swing largely to Mitt when he drops out. I don't think the Mormonism is a real problem. The percentage of people who wouldn't vote for him because he's LDS are largely evangelical Christians, and they've got their guy in Huckabee. Huckabee is totally unelectable; he's a nutjob. McCain and Thompson are old friends; Thompson endorsed McCain in 2000, even though Bush was more conservative. Keep in mind that John McCain has been preparing for this for eight years. I think the Thompson candidacy is, in part, a ploy on McCain's part to divide up the more conservative contingent of the Republican party. South Carolina is MAJORLY conservative, and for McCain to win there... it's interesting. Think Perot elevating Bill Clinton over Bush Classic. I would not be surprised one bit to see Thompson get a nice cushy Cabinet post in a McCain presidency - or even act as running mate. As VP he'd legitimize the McCain candidacy in the eyes of the hardcore conservatives, who really can't stand McCain for some of his perceived nonconservative positions -- illegal immigration, campaign finance reform, etc. The drawing card on McCain is that's he's electable - he appeals to moderates and some Democrats. I think Romney's more electable than people think, though. Moderates and Democrats are not going to pass on him because he's LDS, and those who would are still going to vote for him before they vote for Hillary!

Forget Huckabee, if he couldn't pull out South Carolina, he's dead in the water. Giuliani's strategy of ignoring all these early primaries just seems stupid to me. I don't see him winning Florida, and that'll be that. That's my opinion; others will tell you differently. One thing's likely: there will still be four viable candidates for the twenty or so primaries of Feb. 5, and that's just fascinating.

Fortunately, I think Clinton or Obama will beat any of them. :)