An Obama Presidency

McCain and Palin both held their own in the debates (note: the standard for holding one's own was vastly lower for P. than McC.), but at this point, they need a huge game-changer if they're going to gain the needed ground in the polls. Add in Obama's superior ground game in battleground states and it's not looking good for old Mac.

Indeed, after watching the first presidential and the only vice-presidential debate, I've determined that, barring some kind of "October Surprise", Barack Obama has an insurmountable lead over John McCain, and will be the next President of the United States.

(Man, that felt good to say.)

Of course, I could be eating my words on election night - it has certainly happened before. But it's looking good for Team Hope.

That begs the question - what will the presidency of Barack Obama actually look like?

It would start with an inauguration speech for the ages. Even his critics acknowledge the man's oratorical gifts. He's simply got a talent for delivering a mesmerizing, inspirational speech.

Obama has stated that he would direct his Attorney General to review all of George Bush's executive orders and that he would rescind those deemed unconstitutional. I expect him to follow through with this, and we'll see some (if not all - many of them are secret and if Obama wants, he can keep them around and nobody'd be the wiser) overturned. Although you wouldn't expect a new president to immediately go about weakening the power of the executive branch, I think Obama will have the confidence in Democratic control over the legislature to go through with this promise.

The bailout bill has proven that Democrats are not willing to make unilateral legislative moves - in other words, they're afraid to stick their necks out, even though they have the votes to pass whatever they want. They wait for bipartisan support; that way, if something goes bad, they don't have to shoulder all the blame. Some have expressed fear of a Democratic president and Congress moving the country to far to the left, but I don't expect this to happen. They will move slowly, working hard to ensure that they don't appear to middle America to be a bunch of rabid, crazy liberals.

Expect Wall Street regulations to come crashing back. I don't really see any effective spin in favor of deregulation these days, and "greed on Wall Street" is the new "terrorism" buzzword that everyon can rally around. The real economic test for Obama will be to see if he gets the regulation "right"- a proper balance between regulation and market freedom - or if he goes overboard, strangling the market in a PATRIOT Act-style, disproportionate response. Of course, I have no idea where the line is on this - I doubt that anyone does - but if the regulations have bipartisan compromise, we should be in good shape. In his campaign, at least, he has come off as a man possessed of that kind of restraint, but we'll see what happens when the power is actually there.

I think Barack Obama will work with congressional and military leaders to redistribute our military assets in the War on Terror and set a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq. Given his aforementioned restraint, however, I believe that if the timeline for withdrawals resulted in the situation worsening, he'd be willing to change his mind. This would, of course, have great political cost. But Obama believes that the timetable will lead to increased Iraqi self-governance and a more stable region, and I agree with him. He can simultaneously show his strength by focusing on Afghanistan and rooting out terror cells. It's vastly important for him to do this, to flex his military muscles a little bit and prove his resolve to the world, and to put aside the image of him (and Democrats generally) as weak on terror. The best thing that could happen for Obama politically would be the capture or death of Osama bin Laden. It would instantly legitimize his War on Terror strategy whether it's legitimate or not, and it would be the premiere example of him "setting right" the major Bush failure. I don't think it's likely, but I think it's possible.

As I've mentioned in a previous blog, we can expect to see the quick retirement of one or more Supreme Court judges. This is an area where Obama and the Democrats can really push through whoever they want without worrying about political fallout or placating congressional Republicans. It'll be like the Roberts and Alito nominations, where Dems brayed on about how bad they were but ultimately couldn't do anything about it. Expect to see ideologically liberal judges on the bench. Joe Biden made it quite clear last night that he believes strongly that the ideology of judges is highly relevant to their qualifications.

Lehrer and Ifill pushed all four of them to identify what they'd be cutting from their agendas in the face of this economic turmoil and $700 billion dollar bailout, but the only real answer given when Biden said they'd have to cut foreign aid - what a non-voter-offending answer, Joe! The fact of the matter is that if Obama believes in balancing the budget, things are going to have to get chopped. Bush tax cuts will be expiring - at least those for families making $250,000 or more. If you're making that much money, you can expect to be losing some cash under Obama, there's no question about it. Joe Biden was unequivocal last night in stating that "fairness" is how they'll describe redistribution of wealth. The big question is whether or not he'll push through his sweeping middle-class tax cuts. My boss, who came across this site recently, sent me an e-mail, which said, among other things:

"I doubt you remember the entire thrust of his [Bill Clinton's] campaign that previous year was directed toward a "middle-class tax cut". Of course within days of being inaugurated, President Clinton "got religion" and declared (you can add your own Arkansas drawl here), "I guess the problem is worse than we thought, and maybe we can't do the middle-class tax cut this year". Of course that tax cut (the promise of which got him elected) never did come about, instead we all got tax increases, even the middle-class. My prediction...Sen. Obama wins the election, but again, the promise will be broken. History is on my side."

Is he right? History is on his side. The government needs cash, especially with a president who is unlikely to want to cut social programs and can't afford politically to cut the military budget. I want to believe that Obama will follow through with his Main Street tax cuts, but we'll have to wait and see.

One thing will not be changing: the federal status of same-sex marriage. Joe Biden made it clear last night that neither candidate supports same-sex marriage. I would expect an Obama presidency to mirror this paragraph from "The Divine Institution of Marriage":

"The Church does not object to rights (already established in California) regarding hospitalization and medical care, fair housing and employment rights, or probate rights, so long as these do not infringe on the integrity of the family or the constitutional rights of churches and their adherents to administer and practice their religion free from government interference."

The repeal of "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" and the ability for gay couples to file taxes jointly would be issues we might expect addressed by the Obama administration. A federal marriage amendment would be unlikely to pass.

Sadly, illegal immigration has totally fallen off the political radar - when was the last time you heard a candidate mention it? It's one of those toxic issues where it seems like whatever you say, you'll be alienating more voters than you gain. I am not "up" on the illegal immigration issue - though I am reading Ankarlo's book - but it appears that Arizona's employer sanctions law is working, and Obama's website says they will "remove incentives to enter the country illegally by cracking down on employers who hire undocumented immigrants." I wouldn't bank on anything getting done in the first Obama term.

Finally, we come to health care. Barack Obama claims that the expiration of the Bush tax cuts on those making over $250,000/year will fully fund his optional universal healthcare proposal. How that will work when the plan is supposed to cost $50-65 billion annually and we just spent over ten times that on an unplanned-for bank bailout is yet to be determined.

Obviously, I'm in the tank for Obama and I want him to win, badly. I also understand that many of his lofty ideas will come crashing down to earth when faced with the reality of an economy in crisis. I would love to take a summer vacation in Europe, but I have bills to pay. The government has bills, too. We know he has it in him to be a president of great vision; we shall see if he can be a president of great practicality.